THE FIRST RULE OF RTR ARMY
TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW ABOUT
RON THE REALTOR
The only reason you clicked on this publication was, let’s be honest, to find out what RTR’s crystal ball says. With incredible accuracy every year this section is spot on and is used to forecast the next year’s market, what the RTR ARMY relies on to succeed.
What is in store 2023:
The bottom line is this record-setting pace cannot and will not continue. Luckily Winter Garden, as stated many times, is a very desirable place to call home. The higher interest rates and builders still struggling with supply chain issues causing longer build times will continue to keep inventory lower than it should be. Low supply and inflation will keep prices rising, just not at the 20% we witnessed in 2022.
Our biggest issue is that few sellers want to sell their existing home with under 3% interest rate fixed mortgage and take on a high 5 to low 6 rates. This is causing a significant jam in the national real estate market and preventing what would be normal move-up buyers from moving up. The institutional buyers have also stopped their neck-breaking pace of buying any home under 500k with a roof that didn’t leak.
We will experience a significant flood of new homes on the market in the spring by those owners rushing to cash out thinking the market will crash. Many of these homes will be your standard issue tract home with no real endearing features to set them apart from any others in the price point. Many Realtors will be desperate to have any listing at all and agree to overprice these properties just to have a listing. Remember there are well over 25,000 Realtors in our local board… 1,970 homes closed in 34787 in 2022 and I am predicting that number to drop to under 1700 in 2023.
These are the properties that will fuel the sensational headlines… as they sit on the market and pile up days and numerous price reductions. I have seen this song written before in my career. It will not represent the entire market, but it will affect the entire market as they continue to report and spotlight these mistakes.
While the headlines will, as always, be focused on sensationalism and false narratives, the reality is… well cared unique homes will continue to have a buyer pool regardless of interest rates. Homes on premium lots will benefit from all of this. Larger homes sites, lakefront estates, and custom homes will continue to be in high demand in 2023 as inventory continues to shrink, these sellers will be able to continue to command top dollar.
This is my reasoning for the median sale price to continue the double-digit trajectory (10% predicted) even as average sale prices level off in 2023 from the 20% plus jumps of 2022 (5% predicted).
The luxury market in Winter Garden has had it’s coming out party and the area is now not considered a risk to invest in the over 2m arena. Just a few short years ago it was just Windermere, Windermere, Windermere when it came to properties over this 2m price point. With 138 closed sales over 1m price point, representing almost 10% of the single-family housing market for Winter Garden… luxury homes are here to stay. This is your basic herd mentality at work, and it is wonderful news for 34787.